Recent heightened hurricane activity is at least partly attributed to the current warm phase of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) which began in 1995. In spring 2020, for example, the AMO reached its highest values since 1950 which was followed in 2021 by the third most active year of hurricanes on record with a total of 21 named storms. This season however Acrisure Re Analytics currently forecasts a cooler Atlantic surface temperature than in 2021 through the key months of the 2022 hurricane season.
Acrisure Re’s outlook report is qualified by the unpredictable nature of weather development. Consequently, the team examined the following key factors to create a qualitative overview of the likely conditions this summer:
- Forecast Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (SST) are slightly lower than last year, which lends to a less active hurricane Season than 2021.
- The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is predicted to be a marginally weaker La Nina phase than last year, which will lead to weak vertical wind shear and enhanced hurricane activity.
- Negative ENSO conditions are associated with lower landfall rates for Gulf clusters in the Acrisure Re forecast model.
- Past analog years of 2006 and 2015 would indicate Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is trending to a positive anomaly. It has been claimed that positive QBO values are associated with more Cape Verde storms forming in the deep tropics.
- Conditions in the Sahel region of Africa appear to be very close to average. This means dust is unlikely to play a major role suppressing hurricane activity.
Simon Hedley, CEO of Acrisure Re, said: “The 2022 hurricane outlook indicates an above-average period of storm activity which will mean guarding against loss of life and property damage. Acrisure Re’s analytical capabilities and intellectual reach allow us to remain committed to providing sustained market leading modelling and research regarding the upcoming hurricane seasons. These methodological considerations will be of heightened importance given the impact of storm devastation in 2021. We will continue to provide updates as the season progresses.”
Ming Li, Global Head of Catastrophe Modelling, Acrisure Re, said: “Our 2022 hurricane outlook report reflects a consultative and collaborative approach to gain a deep understanding of the potential for catastrophic risks this summer and fall. This model enables our analytics team to operate as an extension of our clients’ risk management team and provides the basis for advice year-round.”
About Acrisure Re and Acrisure London Wholesale:
Acrisure Re is a premier (re)insurance broking and advisory firm with a reputation for innovative reinsurance placements for complex and technical books of business. Operating in Atlanta, Bermuda, Burlington NC, London, New York, Seattle, Toronto, and Zurich, Acrisure Re works with major insurance companies and insurance distribution partners to understand and achieve corporate risk management goals through the purchase of reinsurance and insurance portfolio solutions. By fostering a team mentality, both internally and with clients, the company develops a thorough understanding of clients’ situations and markets, and identifies creative, unique opportunities for innovative and ingenious solutions that add value and get positive results.
Acrisure London Wholesale has a wealth of specialised experience covering a broad range of product lines. Amid rapid growth, the company has maintained its entrepreneurial spirit and strong market relationships. They are uniquely placed within the market to offer excellent solutions to clients, with both scale and breadth.
Together, Acrisure Re and Acrisure London Wholesale have a global team of over 260 experienced and talented employees dedicated to providing advisory, portfolio, and reinsurance solutions. Learn more at http://www.Acrisure.com/Reinsurance
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